2011-12 Ski Season Progress Report as of January 7, 2012

Late October 2011 will be remembered for its snowfall in the eastern metro areas, which also opened a few eastern ski areas. Aside from Wolf Creek, no western areas had a meaningful snowpack at the end of October to get a jump on the upcoming season. I was out of the country the entire month of November and unable to follow progress in snowfall or ski area openings during that time. November snowfall reflected a classic La Nina pattern with an outstanding start in the Pacific Northwest and much of western Canada, drier in regions farther south.

December was bone dry over nearly the entire West until Christmas. Some snow got through to the Southwest in December, bringing most areas there close to average but only Wolf Creek far above average. During Christmas week the Northwest and Northern Rockies of both U.S. and Canada got 3 feet of snow, but it remained dry farther south. With warm weather and Christmas crowds degrading the mostly manmade snowpack, California, Utah and I-70 Colorado are in the worst shape in January since at least 1980-81. Only the Pacific Northwest and western Canada have normal or better conditions and the only significant snow last week was in those same regions. Conditions in California and I-70 Colorado are so bad that vacationers scheduled in the next few weeks should bail out and go somewhere else, even at the cost of cancellation penalties. In 15 years of writing these reports this is the first time I have made such a drastic recommendation.

California: There was an 18+ inch storm during the first week of October but it all melted up to at least 10,000 feet by the end of the month. Mammoth had about half normal snowfall in November and Tahoe was even drier. With no snow in December, a warm Christmas week and no snow expected next week advance commitments should be avoided until at least February. This was the worst Christmas at Mammoth since 1999-2000 and the worst at Tahoe since 1976-77 with very limited skiing only on manmade snow. The first week of January remained dry and was also too warm to make snow. Full operation of expert terrain in the Sierra is not likely until late February and the probability of a completely busted season is about 25%. Southwest storms opened most of Arizona Snowbowl by mid-December and snowmaking terrain in Southern California opened in the same timeframe with cold temperatures. See Current California Ski Conditions for more details on Southern California and Mammoth.

Area	Season Snow	Pct. of Normal	Pct. of Area Open
Squaw 8,000	18	11%	2%
Northstar	22	20%	7%
Mt. Rose	24	20%	18%
Kirkwood	35	21%	8%
Mammoth	32	25%	14%
Southern Cal	32	96%	0-97%
Arizona Snowbowl	91	111%	80%

Pacific Northwest: The entire region had an excellent start in November. Mt. Bachelor had a solid base that could open most of the mountain, but did not get that last dump to open Summit and Northwest until Christmas week. Mt. Baker has been 100% open and Mt. Hood 80% since early December. There was no snow in the region in December before Christmas, but with 3 feet over the holidays base depths reached 4-5 feet with excellent conditions. So far in January there have been 2 feet at Whistler, 1+ foot in Washington and a few inches in Oregon.

Area	Season Snow	Pct. of Normal	Pct. of Area Open
Whistler	206	115%	100%
Crystal Mt.	167	102%	91%
Stevens Pass	161	83%	100%
Mt. Bachelor	91	57%	70%

Canadian Rockies and Interior B.C.: November snowfall was high through most of the region. Modest snowfalls in December before Christmas averaged less than a foot near the U.S. border and 1-2 feet farther north. But 2-3 feet of snow during Christmas week throughout the region bought base depths up to 3-5 feet with excellent conditions. Early January snowfall has been just a few inches near the U.S. border but 1+ foot farther north Big White is 84% open and Silver Star and Sun Peaks 100%. Revelstoke and Kicking Horse snow totals are likely inflated by including October, but both were 50+% open in early December.

Area	Season Snow	Pct. of Normal	Pct. of Area Open
Lake Louise	114	159%	91%
Sunshine	158	157%	93%
Revelstoke	194	128%	100%
Kicking Horse	175	155%	93%
Whitewater	141	84%	94%
Red Mt.	78	69%	100%
Fernie	114	76%	84%
Castle Mt.	76	69%	85%

U. S. Northern Rockies: Snowfall in November was close to average at areas reporting. Jackson opened a bit early with more terrain than normal available but added little during dry spell before Christmas. Schweitzer got off to a good start with the Northwest influence, and along with consistent Grand Targhee was the only area in full operation by Christmas. Big Sky was 61% open for Christmas (89% now) but the rest of the region's ski areas were less than half open, and Brundage and Bogus Basin not open at all. Conditions improved during Christmas week with up to 2 feet of snow at most areas, allowing Jackson's tram and Brundage to open Dec. 30. After a dry first week of January base depths are 4 feet in the Tetons and at Schweitzer but no more than 3 feet elsewhere, well below average.

Utah: Utah's November was close to average but there were less than 2 feet of snow in the Wasatch in December. Brian Head had 3+ feet in December from Southwest storms. The Cottonwood areas were 2/3 to 3/4 open for the holidays on 3 foot bases. Other Wasatch areas were less than half open on 2 foot bases, mostly on snowmaking. With warm weather during Christmas week New Year's conditions were the worst since 1980-81. Outside the Cottonwood Canyons much advanced terrain will not likely be open until mid-February. Late last week there were several inches new snow which improved surfaces but are not enough to open more terrain.

Area	Season Snow	Pct. of Normal	Pct. of Area Open
Alta	105	53%	72%
Snowbird	107	64%	50%
Brighton/Solitude	90	48%	64%
Park City group	64	56%	42%
Snowbasin	69	60%	39%
Brian Head	91	77%	65%

Northern and Central Colorado: This region has had a very bad start. Loveland had 46 inches in October but only 36 inches in November and 20 in December. It is possible that some other area snow totals may include October snow that probably did not last. Historically most of these areas are at least half open by mid-December but were only quarter open this year. Going into New Year's many areas were still only 1/3 open. This holiday season was the worst since 1980-81, with crowds bringing up the rocks on the limited terrain in warm weather. With base depths still around 2 feet much advanced terrain will not likely be open until late February. Just a few inches fell last week, and terrain open actually declined at some areas with warm weather and limits on snowmaking. Advance commitments should be avoided before March as snow tends to accumulate gradually in this region.

Southern and Western Colorado: The Gothic Snow Lab between Crested Butte and Aspen (snowier climate than either) had 22 inches in October, 39 in November and only 14 in December. In the Southwest December snowfall snowfall was average or better, so Taos was 76% open at Christmas (83% now) on a 4 foot base vs. 41% open on average. Wolf Creek's 87 inches of December snow was nearly twice as much as any other U.S. area. Nearly the entire region has been dry since Christmas with no new snow expected soon. So at the Colorado areas with base depths of 3 feet (all but Wolf Creek) it may be a few weeks before more expert terrain is opened. Eyewitness reports from Snowmass over Christmas were very rocky. I would not expect Crested Butte's North Face to be open before late February.

Northeast: The late October storm dropped 15 inches at Killington, which opened Oct. 30. Sunday River, Mt. Snow and Plattekill also opened on a limited basis. The natural snow was much less than in October 2005, so operations were more limited and any natural base soon disappeared. November and early December were very poor with low snowfall and very limited operations. This Christmas in the Northeast rivals 2006-07 as the worst since 2001-02. Christmas week and last week had mixed precipitation, but with more snow than rain. So trail counts continue to rise gradually, but at most places were only half of normal at New Year's. Percents open: Okemo 45%, Stratton 61%, Hunter 67%, Sunday River 44%, Sugarloaf 28%, Tremblant 60%, Ste. Anne 100%. I strongly recommend checking First Tracks Online Ski Magazine No-Bull Ski Reports for up to date information in this region, where both weather and surface conditions can change so rapidly.

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